US used car market remains strong in 2026 with high demand

The US used car market enters 2026 without cooling off: despite the increasing number of vehicles returning from leases, prices for nearly new cars aren't dropping. The Manheim Index shows steady demand and predicts further growth—a signal that "young" vehicles will remain expensive.

Why demand for three-year-old cars remains abnormally high

Cox Automotive experts note that the market is in a "middle zone," where there are enough cars but far from abundance. The main factor is the leasing collapse three years ago, when the number of new contracts plummeted due to the COVID crisis. These "missing" vehicles should have hit the market now, but they simply aren't there. As a result, three-year-old cars maintain high value, remaining the most sought-after product for dealers and buyers.

How the market will change in 2026–2027

Manheim expects its index to rise by 2% in 2026—a moderate but stable increase. Lease returns will grow to 2.4 million vehicles, and by 2027, the market will receive 3.1 million cars. At the same time, the share of electric vehicles is increasing: if they made up 2.8% of all lease returns at the start of 2025, they'll reach 6.9% by early 2026 and nearly 19% in 2027. This promises a noticeable drop in used EV prices in the long term.

How price and demand structure is shifting

The Manheim Index ended December 2025 at 205.5 points—almost unchanged year-over-year but significantly higher than pre-crisis levels. Despite demand stabilization, the market remains a seller's game: nearly new cars are expensive, sell quickly, and provide dealers with high margins. Supply is expanding simultaneously, but not enough yet to push prices down.